AN ANALYTICAL ASSESSMENT OF LEGAL RISKS IN MULTIMODAL TRANSPORT INVOLVING MARITIME TRANSPORT DURING EMERGENCIES :

A. M. Ibrahim; K. M. Klevtsov

A. M. Ibrahim Kherson State Maritime Academy, Kherson https://orcid.org/0009-0007-6007-5708
K. M. Klevtsov Kherson State Maritime Academy, Kherson https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8486-1104

Keywords: multimodal transport, HEART, the ‘Swiss cheese’ model, legal conflicts, barrier analysis, transport, risk assessment, mathematical model, prognostication, mechanical resilience

Abstract

The effective organisation of multimodal transport involving maritime shipping during emergencies is significantly hindered by systemic legal conflicts. This study addresses the urgent need for quantitative tools to manage these hidden legal vulnerabilities. Objective: To develop a methodological framework for the Barrier Analysis of Legal Risks (BALR) for multimodal transport operators and to quantitatively assess the probability of these risks materialising under extreme conditions. Methods: The study proposes an exploratory integration of engineering safety models into legal risk analysis. It combines Gibson and Haddon’s energy-barrier theory with J. Reason’s ‘Swiss cheese’ model to identify legal conflicts as latent system conditions. Furthermore, it adapts the HEART (Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique) methodology to mathematically calculate the adjusted probability()scorPof a legal risk occurring, utilising error-provoking condition (EPC) coefficients. Results: Based on the analysis of six key legal conflicts, a comprehensive BALR matrix was developed. Three risks were classified as 'CRITICAL' (1.0)scorP≈: the 'patchwork' network liability model, the archaic maritime exemption for navigational errors, and the legal vacuum regarding force majeure under martial law. The original concept of 'legal practical drift' is introduced to explain how emergency stressors erode compliance procedures. Practical implications: The study demonstrates that digital technologies, specifically 'Digital Twins' telemetry and electronic records under the 2025 UN Accra Convention, act as the most effective compensatory barriers. The calculated BALR matrix provides multimodal operators with a practical decision-support tool for internal compliance audits and offers supplementary analytical arguments for international transport arbitration.

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AN ANALYTICAL ASSESSMENT OF LEGAL RISKS IN MULTIMODAL TRANSPORT INVOLVING MARITIME TRANSPORT DURING EMERGENCIES

https://doi.org/10.33815/2313-4763.2026.1.32.141-151

Abstract

References