PROJECT-ORIENTED APPROACH TO MARITIME TRANSPORT SAFETY MANAGEMENT BASED ON A GRAVITATIONAL-INERTIAL MODEL
https://doi.org/10.33815/2313-4763.2025.2.31.124-142
Abstract
A project-oriented approach to maritime transport safety management at the macro level is proposed, based on a physical analogy with a gravitational-inertial model in which the mission of the multi-project is interpreted as a vertical axis, the execution rhythm ω3 and process maturity I3 form the momentum of the stable regime L, and the external environmental pressure Ht, Gt, St and the disturbance moment τ define the controlled precession Ω of the system. A system of generalized parameters and multi-project segments P1-P8 (regulatory compliance, ship traffic management, navigational infrastructure, human factor, cyber protection, environmental safety, emergency readiness, analytics and DSS) is developed, for which, using EMSA reports, weight matrices of impacts and a normalized matrix A are constructed that link the development levels of segments with the states {ω3, I3, Ht, Gt, St, θ, τ}. On the basis of matrix B, which takes into account amplitudes and signs of effects, a weighted least-squares problem is formulated for the vectors Δp that provides the search for optimal changes in segment levels, while subsequent discretization ΔPᵢ ∈ {−2,…,2} transforms them into interpretable expert recommendations on strengthening or unloading individual blocks of the multi-project. A software module in Python (NumPy, pandas, matplotlib) is implemented, which automates the calculation of the indicators L and Ω, classifies scenarios by stability, and generates tabular reports and plots for six typical scenarios of the European region, demonstrating the possibility of transforming crisis and stressed regimes into a new balanced state with increased momentum L and reduced precession frequency Ω.
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